Global Energy Spot Price Latest Updates: Oil Prices Under Pressure, Natural Gas Prices Rise Volatilely
On July 27, 2026, the global energy market showed a bifurcated trend. International oil prices continued the decline from last week, with WTI crude falling below the $75 mark, reaching a two-week low; meanwhile, European natural gas prices continued to rise due to high temperatures and supply tightening expectations, with the TTF benchmark price rising above 38 EUR/MWh. Concurrently, thermal coal prices remained stable, with coal prices in the Asia-Pacific market fluctuating narrowly around $128/ton. This article reviews the core changes and driving factors of today's energy spot prices based on the latest market data.
I. Crude Oil: Inventory and Demand Double Pressure Drive Price Down
As of 16:00 Beijing time on July 27, WTI crude futures for September traded at $74.85/barrel, a 1.2% decrease from the previous trading day, with a daily low of $74.52/barrel, the lowest since July 14; Brent crude futures for September traded at $78.60/barrel, down 1.0%. Oil prices recorded a low for the third consecutive trading day, mainly dragged down by the following factors:
- Unexpected Increase in U.S. Crude Inventories: The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending July 21, reaching 467 million barrels, contrary to the market expectation of a decrease of 1.8 million barrels. The unexpected inventory rise caused market concerns about short-term supply surplus.
- Weak Demand Outlook: Global manufacturing PMI data remained sluggish; the preliminary manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in July dropped to 45.6, the lowest since December 2022; the preliminary manufacturing PMI in the U.S. by Markit was also below the turning point. Economic slowdown suppressed expectations for crude oil demand.
- Strengthening Dollar Index: With the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaching, market expectations of a rate hike pushed the Dollar Index to 101.3, putting downward pressure on dollar-denominated crude oil.
Analysts point out that oil prices may continue to test the $73-$74 support zone in the short term, but the OPEC+ production cut compliance remains high, and the summer travel season is not over, limiting the potential for a sharp drop in oil prices. Investors should pay attention to tomorrow's EIA weekly inventory data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
II. Natural Gas: High Temperatures Drive Power Demand, European Natural Gas Rises Against the Trend
In contrast to the trend of crude oil, European natural gas prices rose significantly on Monday. Dutch TTF natural gas futures for September traded at 38.45 EUR/MWh, up 2.8%, reaching a three-week high; UK NBP futures traded at 95.3p/sAm, up 3.1%. The main drivers include:
- Extreme High Temperatures: Western Europe experienced another heatwave, with temperatures soaring above 38°C in countries like France, Germany, and Spain, leading to a surge in cooling power demand and a corresponding increase in natural gas power generation demand.
III. Coal: Both Supply and Demand are Soft, Thermal Coal Prices Stable
The global thermal coal market was calm today. The FOB spot price for thermal coal (5500 kcal) from Newcastle, Australia, was reported at $128.2/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the coal price from Richards Bay, South Africa, was reported at $112.5/ton, up slightly by 0.3%; and the coal price from the three ARA ports in Europe was reported at $105.8/ton, down by 0.5%. The overall market exhibits a soft supply and soft demand pattern:- Supply Side: Coal exports from Indonesia and Australia remained stable, but rainfall in parts of Indonesia slightly disturbed shipping efficiency, causing minor supply fluctuations.
- Demand Side: Power plant inventories along the Chinese coast remain high, and daily consumption has risen slightly due to high temperatures, but the willingness to replenish stocks is not strong; India has sufficient domestic coal reserves, and import demand has not been significantly released.
- Natural Gas Substitution Effect: Following the rise in European natural gas prices, some power plants may restart coal-fired generation, but current natural gas prices are not yet sufficient to drive large-scale coal-power substitution, limiting coal demand support.
IV. Electricity Market: European Day-Ahead Prices Surge, US PJM Region Under Pressure
Due to high temperatures, day-ahead electricity prices in major European markets have risen sharply: the day-ahead baseload price in Germany was reported at €112.5/MWh, an increase of 9%; and the day-ahead price in France was reported at €126.3/MWh, an increase of 11%. In the US, the PJM grid region experienced a temporary spike in real-time electricity prices to $85/MWh due to generator malfunctions and rising demand, before subsequently declining. Furthermore, the day-ahead average price in the Guangdong power spot market in China was reported at 0.45 RMB/kWh, up 3% from last Friday, mainly driven by air conditioning load.V. Future Outlook: Intensifying Bull vs. Bear Battle, Focus on Macro and Weather Variables
Over the next week, the trend of energy spot prices will focus on the following key variables:- Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: The FOMC meeting on July 27-28 will announce interest rate decisions. A 25 basis point hike could further suppress oil and commodity prices, while a pause in hikes would benefit risk assets.
- Persistent Extreme Weather: European heatwaves are expected to last until the end of July, supporting high levels of natural gas and electricity prices. High temperatures in the US Midwest may also drive up regional electricity and natural gas demand.
- OPEC+ Production Policy: The market is watching the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Committee meeting on August 4, where the current production cut policy is expected to be reviewed. Any adjustment signals could trigger sharp fluctuations in oil prices.
- Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical factors such as the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to create uncertainty in energy supply, requiring vigilance against sudden supply disruptions.
Overall, on July 27, the energy market showed a differentiated pattern of weak crude oil, strong natural gas, and stable coal power. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic data and weather changes to seize short-term trading opportunities while managing risks. Lao P.A.E. will continuously track energy spot prices to provide you with professional and timely decision-making references.
(Data in this article is as of 17:00 on July 27, 2026, sourced from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), ICE Futures Europe, and industry research institutions, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.)
